Fantasy football strategy: Our experts on auction bidding, when to take a QB and more

It’s the annual “Strategy Roundtable,” where we take a break from player-centric advice and jump into the hows and whys of it all — waiting on QB vs. grabbing an elite runner early, what to do if you’re at the end of a round, is it unhealthy to obsess over getting one player no matter what in every draft? and more. Jump in as our group of eight experts handle the big strategy questions for 2023…

1. Which most closely describes your attitude when drafting a QB in 1 QB leagues?

• A. I need a QB who will get 400+ rushing yards and I will pass on one who doesn’t even if he is “best available”
• B. I will wait until the bitter end to grab a QB with high upside
• C. I will grab one around the 5th and then another late as a backup. 
• D. I don’t care if he runs, I am all about a QB with weapons who will throw all day. 
• E. None of the above. 

Jeff Haverlack: D but I’m slowly gravitating toward “A.” I’m relatively well known for taking a quarterback more highly than others. The predominant strategy is to still wait for later rounds before drafting a quarterback but those who have Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, etc. know just how powerful a fantasy team can be when you have a top performing quarterback to start every week without fail. It removes a lot of potential stress during the season. I still have some reservation about mobile quarterbacks and the risk of injury, but mobility when combined with a plus-level receiving corps. and a live arm make for top performance. Note: For the first time, I have reservations about Patrick Mahomes in 2023 due to the quality of receivers.

Renee Miller: A. The QB rushing yards are impossible to make up for on a weekly basis. The good news is that I don’t have to reach for Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts in the first round. I’m all about Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence and Anthony Richardson.

Michael Salfino: E. The strike Zone for QBs is QB 9 through 15. So I want the highest ranked QB in that bucket according to my rankings knowing that the average No. 1 scoring QB is the 9th QB drafted that year and the average top five scoring QB is the average 10th that year. Passing yards and touchdowns are more stable historically than rushing yards and TDs for QBs and pocket QBs can handle injuries much better.

Mike Vorkunov: C. I’ve been loathe to take QBs up high but that may no longer be a viable strategy anymore. Now I’ll aim to get one of the Top 7 QBs and take one in the 5th round area, when the RBs and WRs start to drop off, and then possibly take a long shot late. That allows me to still take the elite talent at RB/WR/TE high up.

Jake Ciely: E. I look to grab a Top 3 (Tier 1) quarterback in Rounds 3-4, if not, then Tier 2 in Rounds 5-6, and if not either, wait until the end game and lean to A — I want someone who has Top 5 upside, not a quarterback who likely finishes QB11-12. Those quarterbacks are replaceable.

Brandon Funston: F. All of the above? I do prefer a QB who offers pass/rush duality, but Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence all rushed for less than 400 yards last year, and I’d be interested in all of them at a reasonable price. Basically, that’s my strategy — score a QB at a really good value, which can lead in many different ways come draft day.

KC Joyner: E. I’m aiming to get one of the elite trio (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts) late in Round 2 or sometime in Round 3. If that doesn’t happen, then it’s wait for the best value.

Gary Davenport: Is there an option for “All of the Above?” Because depending on scoring settings and how the draft plays out, I’ve done all four—this year. I’m not usually the guy who will pay up for the “Big 3,” (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts), but if quarterbacks start falling and I can get Lamar Jackson’s rushing upside at value I’ll pull that trigger. I have also overplayed a hand of “QB Chicken” and wound up with Kirk Cousins as my QB1.

Read more: 2023 fantasy football draft kit: Rankings, cheat sheet, player projections, mock drafts and more

2. You are stuck with the 1st or 12th pick. Do you have any kind of strategy or tendency for the back-to-back picks at the end of each round?

Haverlack: I love being at pick 12 and controlling my own destiny with two back-to-back picks. At the same time, the wait between picks can be long and tortuous. When holding back to back selections, I now like to lay into wide receivers early, assembling a core of young and productive playmakers with a long runway for upside and further production. If its superflex, I still seek to acquire two quarterbacks within the first three rounds, but picking at the end of round one can challenge that strategy if an overly deep run occurs in the first round. But, by overloading a single position like receiver, it’s easy to mop up falling talent at running back starting in round five or six.

Miller: I’ll go with Jalen Hurts at the 1.01 since I mostly play in SuperFlex leagues, but I draft two wide receivers at 1.12 and 2.01. If I can work a Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews/Lamar Jackson stack that’s another possible strategy, but not very likely. It’s important to reach with these picks in the middle rounds because ‘your guys’ who should be 15 picks away will not make it back to you. Example: if you really like Jahmyr Gibbs, pass on Rhamondre Stevenson and Najee Harris at the 2-3 turn even though their ADP is 10 spots higher.

Salfino: I love the 12th pick this year. I think the first pick is very bad. It would be my last choice of slots. The 12th would be among the first if not the first. You can get a RB not fundamentally different than the second RB drafted or a top five WR or even two that have the prospects of scoring that well in PPR. My strategy in all Flex 10 (three WR and a flex), PPR leagues is to have the best WR room. Beyond that, I want to beat ADP and never reach.

Vorkunov: I always take a look at the ADP for the next two picks so I can get a sense of which players and positions are likely going to be available the next time I’m drafting and since the picks are so far away. I’ll use that as a tiebreaker in case I’m very, very close between choices on the current picks.

Ciely: Try to predict runs. You won’t be perfect, but you have to understand two tiers of quarterbacks and/or tight ends might go before your next turn picks. Also, you could see 10+ running backs and/or wide receivers gone.

Funston: No real strategy, though I will say that I love picking at the turns. You can often start runs by double-tapping a position, you can take the best available player off the top of two different position queues in one fell swoop and you have plenty of time in between picks to really hone in on what you’ll be looking for with your next picks. And when I’m picking in the middle of the draft, it always seems like I’m having an internal struggle as to who to take between two different players. At the turn, that struggle becomes a luxury.

Joyner: Go against the grain, as you often can’t take part when a player position run occurs. For example, if a glut of running backs go off the board, it’s time to draft wide receivers because by the time your pick arrives, it’s likely that too much RB value will have left the board to justify taking one of those.

Davenport: I honestly don’t get that twisted up about draft slot, although that may be a function of being in so many drafts that at some point I draft from just about everywhere. My advice on the turn would be this—don’t be afraid to grab a player you like a little “early.” By the time it comes back around to you, it won’t be so early anymore—and within reason when you draft a player doesn’t matter as much as make it out to.

3. Your last three picks before the DST and kicker rounds — what’s your strategy here?

Haverlack: Swing for the fence! My calling card has always been my scouting overlayed by my pragmatic analysis. While this plays out more in dynasty formats, the same can be applied to redraft as well. A high-dynamic player on an unsettled roster can be golden. Most recently, I’ve been targeting carry-the-load potential backs who are somewhat buried on the depth chart behind a well-known and respected starter. Injury at running back continues to reshape the position annually and throwing a couple of darts at backup running backs with three-down potential can pay off.

Miller: Players who have some path to yielding week-winning fantasy points if/when I need them as opposed to “decent-floor veterans.” For me, this includes a lot of young running backs who are an injury away from starting roles: Kendre Miller, Jerome Ford, Zamir White or Tyjae Spears. If I’ve waited on tight end, Irv Smith Jr., Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta are three names I like in these rounds. There are a handful of WRs I want here too, if I’ve gone light on them so far: Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell, Khalil Shakir to name a few.

Salfino: These players are very likely to be cut so the strategy is to figure out not what can go wrong, but what can go right for the player you pick to be a startable asset on a quality fantasy team.

Vorkunov:  Treat it as five rounds to go to get more players not three rounds because I’ll keep taking real players not DST and a kicker through the end of the draft, and then figure out my roster and the K/DST situation later through waivers before Week 1 starts. I’d rather have a few extra lottery tickets and push off paring down those players until as late as I can, with the most information I can get, than take a DST/K.

Jakey Jakeyyyyyyyy: I don’t have kicker rounds, ever, because #BanKickers is the only way to play. Spend your last few picks on pure upside. Similar to my quarterback answer, you’re not looking to get RB40 or WR50. Those are meaningless. Grab backups, breakouts, rebounds, etc. who have Top 25 upside (at RB or WR).

Funston: It’s either one of two things: High-upside/lottery tickets at WR or RB, or I’m desperately looking to plug a depth hole because the draft fell in a way that I ended up screwed over at a position.

Joyner: Low-cost handcuff running backs if they are available, as it’s better to have insurance on your fantasy house than on someone else’s. Possibly looking at low-cost tight ends as well or going for wide receivers who either a) have relatively high target volume PPR insurance policies or b) are home run hitters.

Davenport: Assuming I’m reasonably confident in my starters at QB and TE, that’s when I’ll grab their bye-week fill-in. The other pick is generally reserved for a young “lottery ticket” type—that late veteran depth guys just wind up being the first players you drop in Week 3.

4. In an auction, how do you tend to play it? Stars and scrubs? Spread it around? Stick to a plan? Just go in and react to the market being created?

Haverlack: I no longer like to play auction leagues but I tend to be a garbage man, picking up what others see as trash. I always seek to have a single anchor at every position, a player I know I can trust to score well week-in and week-out. After that, I lay in t weeds and snipe upside players with negative social narratives which tends to drop their ADP.

Miller: Pass. I don’t play in auction leagues and whenever I have I’ve hated my team and myself afterward lol.

Salfino: Come on. All 12-team auction leagues that are Flex 10 or less are stars and scrubs. Kids, you’re going to cut half your team. Who cares how much you pay for this half?

Vorkunov: Let opponents try to burn their cash early and see if I can find values later when other teams have less money to spend.

Ciely: React to your league. Every auction will be different. They’re impossible to predict. But, don’t ONLY react. You react after gauging the room, and you do that by tossing out some hyped players. For example, this year, toss out Bijan Robinson and see what happens. The biggest part of this too is be ready to spend on the first few players. Too often, managers are tight and hesitant to get going, and you can frequently get the cheapest option in a tier (ex: get Saquon Barkley at $35 and watch all the other running backs go off the board after for $40+ each).

Funston: Upper-middle class stars and upper-middle class scrubs is probably a better description of my typical auctions. I won’t pay the extreme premiums for players, but I like to get the next best options once the high-end of the market has been set. And the saving that comes from doing that helps me be more of a player in the higher end of the scrub market.

Joyner: Fantasy managers tend to spend too many auction dollars early, so I’ll usually try to drive the prices up on early picks and submit players who I don’t want but know will use up other managers dollars. It’s a value game and if you approach it right there can be plenty of quality options later in the draft that you can outbid everyone else on.

Davenport: Have a budget (a “par sheet”) and STICK TO IT. If there’s one thing I learned from getting beaten into goo in the King’s Classic Auctions, it’s that. Once your budget is out the window, so is the plan—and any hope of having any kind of balanced roster. You can blow 80 percent of your WR budget on Justin Jefferson. Just be ready to hit the bargain bin after.

4a. If someone starts bidding you up and it’s just the two of you for 5-6 bids in a row, do you change your pacing or rhythm to try and intimidate the other person into relenting?

Haverlack: Stay away from the ongoing $1 up-bid game. After a couple rounds of back-and-forth, I’ll make a big gap bid as long as the player is high on my board. But I’m not going to chase beyond my top bid amount.

Salfino: The only thing you should be thinking about during an auction is how to maximize your remaining resources and build the best team down to your last dollar. Worrying about other owners is a distraction.

Vorkunov: No.

Ciely: I’ll sometimes jump bid or “play poker” and make faces or gestures to keep everyone guessing. The biggest advantage is not letting anyone else know your true feelings through the draft.

Funston: Not really. It does suck when this happens — you almost want to call for a sidebar with the person you are bidding against and negotiate some kind of quid pro quo deal where one person stands down now, and the other person stands down at the next bidding war. But if I’m caught in this situation, I generally tend to show no doubt that I’m committed to winning the bid.

Joyner: I usually try to drive the price up as far as I think the other manager will go. It’s a great way to get your opponents to overpay for prospects.

Davenport: That depends a LOT on who I’m bidding against and how familiar I am with them. If I’m familiar with them, I may just be bidding them up on a player I know they want. If I’m not? As soon as that bidding reaches a point where it will jack up my budget, I’m out. Don’t ever be hell-bent on getting a player in an auction. That’s begging for trouble.

4b. If you were friends before the up-bidding, are you still friends after?

Haverlack: Always.

Salfino:  If someone is bidding on players I like and topping me that usually just means they have too much money and don’t care what they spend. I’m an area drafter not a bullseye drafter so losing one specific player never bothers me. I’ll just take the next guy in that same tier bucket.

Vorkunov: Yes. I respect someone trying to screw me over in a fantasy league. That’s the whole point.

Ciely: Always. It’s not that serious.

Funston: Yes, but know that I’ll be harboring thoughts of retribution, be it later in the auction, or during the season.

Joyner: Sure, at least as long as they don’t get upset about driving the price up.

Davenport: Fantasy Football is a game. It ain’t personal. This isn’t to say that I won’t hurl an obscenity or two, but it’s all in good fun. No hard feelings—whether I know the other person or not.

5. It’s draft night for your favorite league. Describe the scene — where you are, what equipment you’re using, what you’re doing for food and drink, etc?

Haverlack: Unfortunately, it’s now all electronic for me because the coaches of my favorite leagues are widely dispersed and all have busy lives. I’m now holed up in my man cave, dual 23” monitors blazing, iPad open and on a consensus rankings page. Then, I have my printouts of format specific ADP, my individually generated rankings by position for the format including bye weeks and strength of schedule. I also have a generated sleeper list based on ADP.  Many of these I keep taped and hanging on the bottom of my monitors for easy reference. A black Sharpie and a green highlighter wait at the ready to cross off players who have been selected or, highlighted in green, if my own selection. My wife usually makes a run to Buffalo Wild Wings for me to ensure I have healthy food to keep me sharp.

Miller: I’m on my home desk laptop, because as a professor I know it’s important to execute your knowledge in the same setting that you gained it in. Unlike when I’m studying or analyzing fantasy data on a regular day, I do have a beer in my hand. I try to queue a few rounds at a time for my favorite leagues (family league and the one I do with my students at UR – Brain Lovers League) so I can be active in the chat.

Salfino: We used to rent a conference room and feast in my home league but now we all do it remotely. It’s not as fun. I’d strongly suggest getting together in one place, having a draft board, having good food, having beverages (but you shouldn’t drink at all) and constantly trash talking. The equipment I use at a live draft is typically my sharp tongue. It’s the Hater’s Ball with everyone’s pick.

Vorkunov: In front of the computer, phone nearby to text my friends, an Athletic Brewing beer and candy on the table nearby.

Ciely: My place, auction keeper, snacks, sports on the TVs, cookout afterwards.

Funston: My home league drafts every Labor Day. We golf in the morning, where the stakes can involve money, draft slot swaps, shots of Tequila, etc. Then we move on to my buddy’s resplendent man cave/outdoor deck. It’s got a mini-pool/hot tub, corn hole, retractable wall with a big screen TV behind it… So, we sit around eating BBQ and drinking, while arguing about potential new league rule changes for a while until everyone is properly tuned up for the draft, at which point we then commence drafting.

Joyner: My longest tenured league is one that was set up years ago when I was doing weekly chats on ESPN.com. The chatters had so much fun that we decided to put a league together. We’ve never met in person, but the league has a worldwide flavor, as we have one manager from Canada, another from Hawaii and others from all across the continental United States.

Davenport: That’s easy—it just happened. The inaugural King’s Classic Dick Butkus Division. Fourteen IDP degenerates doing a 34-round draft live at the Pro Football of Fame. It was a fantastic experience for this commissioner — the managers did a phenomenal job of drafting in a timely manner, we got done WELL before I expected, and then we went and watched Dez Bryant win a flag football tournament (stunner) before attending a huge industry party at Tom Benson Stadium in Canton. As days go—it don’t get much better.

6. Who is the one player you need to get on every team this year, no matter what the cost?

Haverlack: This sounds like a cop-out, but I don’t think like that. I’m never willing to play that game. I’m willing to “overpay” for particular players related to their ADP, but I’m not going to break the bank to select a single specific player. A single player can get hurt and wreck your team. Too many undervalued players can have big seasons. If there are players I’m all-in on and willing to overpay, they will be further down in the rankings but with an upside profile. These players can be had by giving up much less. In 2023, players on my list are Anthony Richardson, Sam LaPorta, Deebo Samuel, Miles Sanders and Nick Chubb. If there was one player I’d move mountains for it would be Justin Jefferson. In dynasty, that name is Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Miller: There’s never just one. A few guys I’m actively targeting and would be happy with across-the-board exposure to are Darren Waller, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, Calvin Ridley and Daniel Jones.

Salfino: Thinking this way is dangerous. It’s always the price and never the player, in a draft. If I’m in an auction, I’d be the high man on Travis Kelce unless the room went mad. Half the league in avery auction doesn’t want to spend for a tight end so this is rarely that big of a problem.

Vorkunov:  I’ve been trying to get a lot of Dameon Pierce this summer. He was really good last season on just a horrible offense. He ranked really well in several advanced RB metrics as a rookie and this year he’ll have an improved offensive line in front of him, along with a better QB, and an offensive coordinator who has spent his career in the Shanahan coaching tree. Pierce could be a Top 8 RB this season, or higher, but right now he is going as RB18 according to Fantasy Pros ADP.

Ciely: Roll your eyes all you want, but my answer is no one. No player should ever be “no matter the cost,” because then you buy all the risk with no possible return value.

Funston: Aaron Jones has kind of been that guy for me. I’ve landed him a lot. He’s a RB that you can settle on as an RB1 if you end up going WR/WR in the first two rounds and not feel terrible about it. And he’s a luxury item as an RB2. I have landed him a lot so far and I feel very good about that.

Joyner: It’s a rare year without a true No. 1 pick, but if pressed the choice would be Bijan Robinson, as the Falcons had the makings of a dominant run game even before drafting him. Add that to Robinson’s pass catching skills and he could be the next Derrick Henry and then some.

Davenport: There’s no player I absolutely have to draft no matter what. But Nick Chubb or Travis Kelce anywhere outside the Top 5 is larceny. We’ve already seen Kelce’s dominance at tight end, and I think Chubb finishes 2023 as the highest-scoring overall RB.

7. What’s the single best tip you have for a fantasy football draft?

Haverlack: So many to choose from. My single best tip is to understand the ADP of the format you’re drafting. This encapsulates the social narratives on Twitter that move player values, the rising and falling articles from fantasy analysts, etc. Knowing where players are likely to be selected allows you to build your strategy based on your draft selection. I ALWAYS have a printout of the most recent ADP for the format broken down into rounds in the draft. I then highlight my draft selections throughout the entire listing which shows where players are likely to fall relative to my picks. During the draft, I use the aforementioned black Sharpie to cross out selections or the green highlighter to mark my own. This listing makes it very easy to know when I may need to overdraft a player I desire, or see when a player is falling below his ADP, making for a potential bargain.

Miller: Different draft personalities need different advice. I say set up in such a way that you are one with the draft. No outside distractions, whether that means silence or a room full of noise. A game plan, whether you’re a Zero RB or Elite TE drafter, know what you want to achieve and be prepared to have to pivot to do it. Have confidence in yourself and take a lot of deep breaths when things move sideways in a hurry. Take a minute to remind yourself that this is FUN!

Salfino: You need to know positional ADP and not overall ADP. And use the ADP for the last couple of weeks from the NFFC or some other source with lots of recent data. Don’t use the queue in your draft room other than to know which players are buried there for unknown reasons and thus are likely to slide beyond where they’re drafted globally.

Vorkunov: Pre-rank the players before the draft and really internalize what your personal rank of players is and don’t deviate from it when you’re on the clock. You’ll be better off if you’ve thought about how who you want to draft and when, instead of having to make quick-trigger decisions in a minute when you’re drafting.

Ciely: Relax and enjoy it. The draft is always over before you know it, and it’s half the fun of a fantasy season… all crammed into a few hours. Have fun people! Talk smack, laugh, get yours guys (just not at an insane cost) and enjoy it!

Funston: For an in-person live draft, the draft board with color-coded stickers really does elevate the experience. And as far as drafting goes, I’m a big proponent of creating your own single-sheet of paper draft rankings tailored for the draft at hand — keep things as spartan as possible, and no computer so that it’s harder for someone to look over your shoulder.

Joyner: Know that there is value in every round of the draft. Many fantasy managers tend to mail it in after their starters are picked, but savvy managers know that there are value options all the way to the end. Those selections can often make the difference between having a deep team that can absorb injuries and one that struggles when bye weeks and physical ailments arise.

Davenport: As a drafter? Be flexible. A plan is great, but if eight other managers in your league have the same plan you’re probably going to want to pivot, because the value won’t be where you thought it would—and value wins leagues. But for the sake of all that’s good and holy—enjoy yourself, whether you’re drafting for bragging rights or $250K. We all spend months waiting for draft day. Relish it. Savor it. Life is too short not to.

(Top photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images)